February 18, 2025 8:11am

It ain’t sentiment, it’s a short-term algorithmic and electronic trading perspective; expect an inevitable roll-over!

Earnings continue to be important in a holiday shortened week; LPS (loss per share), revenue uplifts and lags, clinical progress with some program uncertainty, a dearth all followed by estimate misses

Solid Biosciences (SLDB) Announces Pricing of 35,738 M share Offering at $4.03 and 13.88 M warrants. Also, announced positive initial data from the P1 /2 INSPIRE DUCHENNE trial evaluating SGT-003, <see The Bottom Line>

Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, and 5 Positive Indications

 I am NOT often wrong and always consider doubt of some market and sector share pricing movements

Never leave an investor uninform

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Friday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: got some, the end of the session and week … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13804

 

Monday was a market holiday for President’s Day

Tuesday; The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.18% or (+81 points), the S&P futures UP +0.38% or (+23 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.43% or (+95 points)

  • U.S. stock futures rose early Tuesday, February 18, 2025
  • European markets traded higher,
  • Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -165.97 points or -0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN -0.47 points or -0.01% while the Nasdaq closed UP +81.13 points or +0.41%

For the week, the Nasdaq rose +2.6%, while the S&P 500 added +1.5% and the Dow added +0.6%.

Economic Data Docket: Empire Manufacturing, February (-1 expected, -12.6 prior); NAHB housing market index, February, (47 expected, 47 prior)

  • The week ahead will bring a quieter flow of economic news. Minutes from the Fed's January meeting (Wednesday) and updates on activity in the manufacturing and services sector, as well as consumer sentiment, will be in focus for investors.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield continued to slide Friday, recently dropping nearly 5 basis points lower to 4.478%.

 

Q1/25: February – 5 negative and 5 positive closes

  • January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24:

  • December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.63 after Thursday’s +$0.80 after Wednesday’s -$0.53 after Tuesday’s +$0.81 with a positive $0.62 or +2.23 pre-open

 

Positive Indications:

AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$0.01 with a positive +$0.10 or +0.55% pre-open

Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) closed down -$0.01 after Thursday’s -$0.305 with a positive +$0.14 or +4.14% pre-open

Mesoblast (MESO) closed down -$0.53 after Thursday’s -$0.03 and Wednesday’s +$0.30 with a positive +$0.11 or +0.56% pre-open

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -$1.03 after Thursday’s -$0.05, Wednesday’s -$0.15, last Tuesday’s -$1.13 and the previous Monday’s -$0.57 with a positive +$0.51 or +1.20% pre-open

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$0.87 after Thursday’s -$0.34 with a positive +$0.24 or +2.80% pre-open

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Solid Biosciences (SLDB) offering (from title continued)

  • The financing includes new and existing investors, including Adage Capital Partners LP, Bain Capital Life Sciences, Invus, Perceptive Advisors, RA Capital Management, TCGX, Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners, Vestal Point Capital, a U.S.-based life-sciences focused institutional investor, a major mutual fund and a large investment management firm.

Jefferies, Leerink Partners and William Blair are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering. H.C. Wainwright & Co. is acting as lead manager for the offering.

  • In support, Solid Biosciences (SLDB) announced positive initial data from the Phase 1 /2 INSPIRE DUCHENNE trial evaluating SGT-003, a next-generation gene therapy product candidate intended for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (Duchenne). Interim 90-day biopsy data reported in the 1st 3 participants showed an average microdystrophin expression of 110%, as measured by western blot, and improvements in multiple biomarkers that are indicators of muscle health and resilience.

 

Take the emotion out of the sector, think of the reality of the “plays” that exist of who’s really buying.

Iti’s earnings season all most a quarterly life crisis.

  • The coming batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject.

  • However, “our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released pre-lim unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024 at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference!

I think speculative behavior in this current market has ascended to a level beyond common sense

  • Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, as sector companies will seek opportunities to sell to better financed companies that can "deal with these additional costs associated of R&D and escalating SG&A.

 

NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

 

Prepare for earnings and more market volatility related to inflation oriented econs …

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/17 – Monday was a market holiday – President’s Day
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 are being published …

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Thursday, 2/13
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE). Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • AxoGen (AXGN) – Tuesday, 2/25
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.