February 19, 2025 5:33pm

From Tuesday, “how long can our universe of cell and gene therapy handle the upswings”?

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

My turn this week, 6-month Dr. tests take time and are positive but, they do keep one waiting

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +71.25 points or +0.16%, the S&P closed UP +14.57 points or +0.24% while the Nasdaq closed UP +14.99 points or +0.07%

  • Indexes closed positive while “barely” climbed to a fresh record on Wednesday as stocks remain resilient despite a continuously cautious Fed and President Trump’s threat of more tariffs

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Fed meeting minutes showed officials want to see more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further, and they are also concerned about the effect of Trump’s tariffs
  • Building permits nudged higher to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. The total was 0.1% above the December level and slightly better than the 1.45 million Dow Jones estimate, though down 1.7% from the same period a year ago. On housing starts, the total of 1.366 million indicated a slide of 9.8% from December though just 0.7% below January 2024. It was roughly in line with the forecast for 1.37 million.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 20 incliner, 13 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 19 incliners, 14 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was UP +1.63%, the XBI was up +1.20% while the VIX was down -0.08 points or -0.52% at 15.27

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +10.26 points or +0.02%, the S&P closed UP +14.95 points or+0.24% while the Nasdaq closed UP +14.49 points or +0.07%

  • Indexes struggled yet closed positive – barely.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The Empire State Manufacturing Index for February climbed to 5.7, up 18 points and back into expansion territory.
  • The prices paid index jumped to 40.2, an 11.1-point increase to its highest level in nearly two years, while prices increased to 19.6, up 10.3 points. Also, the future expectations index tumbled 15 points to 22.2, and the employment index fell 4.8 points to -3.6 amid a potential trade war from tariffs. New orders also cascaded 16.4 points lower, though were still positive at 17.8.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 31 incliner, 2 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 12 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was UP +0.56%, the XBI was down -0.08 while the VIX was down -0.02 points or -0.13% at 15.35

 

Monday was President’s Day – a market holiday

 

Q1/25 – February – 5 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing UP (10 of 19)

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.59 after Tuesday’s -$1.46 after Friday’s -$1.26),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$1.46 after Tuesday’s +$0.36),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$1.17 after Tuesday’s +$1.27),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.80 after Tuesday’s +$2.50 after Friday’s +$6.23),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.75 after Tuesday’s+$0.83 after Friday’s +$1.06),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.73),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.67 after Tuesday’s +1.13 after Friday’s -$1.03),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.60),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.51 after Tuesday’s -$6.45 after Friday’s -$8.44),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.50),

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Wednesday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 14):

  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.58),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.41 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 after Friday’s +$0.87)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.39 after Tuesday’s +$0.55 after Friday’s +$0.63),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.16 after Tuesday’s -$0.18),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.14 after Tuesday’s +$0.91 after Friday’s +$0.69),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.14),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.33),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.12 after Tuesday’s +$0.28 after Friday’s -$0.02),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.05 after Tuesday’s -$0.02),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.04 after Tuesday’s -$0.02),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Indexes drifted “barely” up and  at all-time highs as traders looked past signals the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates.

 New week – Monday a holiday, Tuesday and Wednesday closed positive although the sector’s advance/decline line heads south …

  • Last Friday and Thursday followed Wednesday’s positive close after Tuesday, Monday negative close …
  • Friday and Thursday closed negative session after last Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending the previous Monday's negative close.

 

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs”.

 

Fed officials PROTECTED their REAR …

in January agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact President Trump’s tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released today.

  • Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided at the meeting to hold their key policy rate steady after 3 consecutive cuts totaling a full percentage point in 2024.

In reaching the decision, members commented on the potential impacts from the new administration, including chatter about the tariffs as well as the impact from reduced regulations and taxes. The committee noted that current policy is “significantly less restrictive” than it had been before the rate cuts, giving members time to evaluate conditions before making any additional moves.

  • Members said that the current policy provides “time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. <CNBC>

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday – market holiday
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

I keep reiterating as earnings are about to support my theses …

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Monday - holiday
  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics BEAM) and Moderna (MRNA),

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Mesoblast (MESPO), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday - holiday
  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.