February 21, 2025 8:14am

Earnings continue to be important in a holiday shortened week; LPS (loss per share), revenue uplifts and lags, clinical progress with some program uncertainty, a dearth all followed by estimate misses

News: bluebird bio (BLUE) Announces Definitive Agreement to be Acquired by Carlyle and SK Capital <specifics in The Bottom Line>

No false narratives or fake news; to read insights and analysis on the latest sector action, check out Pre-Open Brief …

I am NOT often wrong and always consider doubt of some market and sector share pricing movements

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Thursday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell:  Sector bends to econs yet again… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13810

 

Friday; the pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.50% or (-205 points), the S&P futures UP +0.05% or (+3 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.34% or (+76 points)

  • U.S. Futures are mixed, low and fluctuating
  • European markets are positive
  • Asia Pacific markets are also mixed Hong Kong hit 3-year high, Australia slipped and South Korea was flat

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

In Thursday’s regular session, the Dow shed 450.94 points, or 1.01%, the S&P 500 lost -226.43 or -0.43% and retreated from its recent all-time highs, while the Nasdaq fell -93.89 or -0.47%.

For the week so far, the S&P 500 is on pace for a gain of less than -0.1%, while the Nasdaq is off -0.3% while the Dow has a -0.8% loss.

Economic Data Docket: Economic data releases, which include the latest purchasing managers’ index readings and January’s existing home sales, will point equities in a direction to end the week.

  • S&P Global US manufacturing, February preliminary (51.2 prior); S&P Global US services PMI, February preliminary (52.9 prior); S&P Global US composite PMI, February preliminary (52.7 prior); University of Michigan sentiment, February final (68.7 prior)

 

Q1/25: February – 6 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24:

  • December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

  • Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to expectation while the aftermarket fluctuated and the pre-open waits for the open …  it is still a mix of ups, downs and just uncertainty.

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  I think it's important just to take a step back, focus on the fundamentals, be selective. I mean, this has definitely been a “sucky” month from a stock-picker standpoint given the up/downs. And so, I am relatively neutral across today/Friday’s equity strategy.

 

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, as sector companies will seek opportunities to sell to better financed companies that can "deal with these additional costs associated of R&D and escalating SG&A.

From news in title: bluebird bio (BLUE) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by funds …

  • Managed by global investment firms Carlyle (NASDAQ: CG) and SK Capital Partners, LP ("SK Capital") in collaboration with a team of highly experienced biotech executives. David Meek, former CEO of Mirati Therapeutics and Ipsen, is expected to become CEO of bluebird upon closing.
  •  Carlyle and SK Capital will provide bluebird primary capital to scale bluebird’s commercial delivery of gene therapies for patients with sickle cell disease, β-thalassemia, and cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy.
  • Under the terms of the agreement, bluebird stockholders will receive $3.00 per share in cash and a contingent value right per share, entitling the holder to a payment of $6.84 in cash per contingent value right if bluebird’s current product portfolio achieves $600 million in net sales in any trailing 12-month period prior to or ending on December 31, 2027, for a potential total value of up to $9.84 per share in cash, subject to the tender of a majority of the outstanding shares of bluebird, receipt of applicable regulatory approvals, and other customary closing conditions.

 

Reiterating, “Take the emotion out of the sector, think of the reality of the “plays” that exist of who’s really buying.”

It’s earnings season all most a quarterly life crisis.

  • The coming batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject.

  • However, “our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released pre-lim unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024 at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference!

I think speculative behavior in this current market has ascended to a level beyond common sense

NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

 

Prepare for earnings and more market volatility related to inflation oriented econs …

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/20 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 25 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday was a market holiday – President’s Day
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Thursday, 2/13
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE). Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • AxoGen (AXGN) – Tuesday, 2/25
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – Monday, 3/3

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.