February 21, 2025 4:41pm

A lousy week with another series of BAD econs raise further concerns about the economy

As I wrote, “a sign, advanced/decline line is dropping; from Tuesday, how long can our universe of cell and gene therapy handle the upswings”? They didn’t!

News: bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.96 or -42.05% TO $4.08) to go private for less than $30 M; former CEO Nick Leschly had really “wrung the neck of the bird” <See Pre-Open’s Post in The Bottom Line>

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The week in Review

 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: think speculative behavior in this current market and sector… https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13811

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -748.63 points or -1.69%, the S&P closed DOWN -104.39 points or -1.71% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -438.36 points or -2.20%

  • Indexes dropped like stones
  • For the week, the S&P 500 is about 1.6% lower, while the Dow lost -2.5% and the Nasdaq dived --2.4%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • PMIs fell short of expectations as manufacturing grew at a slower-than-expected pace this month, while services unexpectedly contracted, according to data from S&P Global. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.6, below the Dow Jones estimate of 52.8. The services PMI, meanwhile, fell to 49.7, its lowest level in more than two years, while economists had forecast a print of 52.8.
  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 64.7 in January, a decline of 10% and a steeper drop than expected as consumers feared higher inflation ahead from possible new tariffs. The 5-year inflation outlook in the survey was 3.5%, the highest since 1995.
  • On inflation, the 1-year expectation leaped to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. At the 5-year horizon, the outlook surged to 3.5%, the highest reading since April 1995.
  • Existing home sales in the U.S. fell more than expected last month to 4.08 million units. The U.S. services purchasing managers index also dropped into contraction territory for February, according to S&P Global.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield dropped on the economic concerns.          

Friday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -0.52%, the XBI was down -1.02% while the VIX was up +2.58 points or +16.46% at 18.24

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -450.94 points or -1.01%, the S&P closed DOWN -26.63 points or -0.43% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -93.89 points or -0.47%

  • Indexes dropped Thursday, in a session as investors weighed the econs and the economy

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Conference Board Leading Economic Index declined 0.3% for the month, reversing a 0.1% gain in December and falling short of the estimate for a 0.2% drop. Driving the decline was a 0.1% decline in consumer expectations for business conditions and a 0.2% decrease in average weekly hours. They expect the economy will grow at a 2.3% pace in 2025.             
  • The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index slipped to 18.1 for the month, down considerably from its level of 44.3 from January but ahead of the estimate for 13.2.
  • Jobless claims totaled a seasonally adjusted 219 K for the period ending Feb. 15, up 5 K from the previous week and a bit higher than the consensus estimate for 215 K. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, also nudged higher, totaling 1.87 million for an increase of 24 K.

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 25 decliners and 3 flats

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +0.69%, the XBI was up +0.19% while the VIX was up +0.18 points or +1.18% at 15.45

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +71.25 points or +0.16%, the S&P closed UP +14.57 points or +0.24% while the Nasdaq closed UP +14.99 points or +0.07%

  • Indexes closed positive while “barely” climbed to a fresh record on Wednesday as stocks remain resilient despite a continuously cautious Fed and President Trump’s threat of more tariffs

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Fed meeting minutes showed officials want to see more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further, and they are also concerned about the effect of Trump’s tariffs
  • Building permits nudged higher to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.483 million, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday. The total was 0.1% above the December level and slightly better than the 1.45 million Dow Jones estimate, though down 1.7% from the same period a year ago. On housing starts, the total of 1.366 million indicated a slide of 9.8% from December though just 0.7% below January 2024. It was roughly in line with the forecast for 1.37 million.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 20 incliner, 13 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 19 incliners, 14 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was UP +1.63%, the XBI was up +1.20% while the VIX was down -0.08 points or -0.52% at 15.27

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +10.26 points or +0.02%, the S&P closed UP +14.95 points or+0.24% while the Nasdaq closed UP +14.49 points or +0.07%

  • Indexes struggled yet closed positive – barely.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The Empire State Manufacturing Index for February climbed to 5.7, up 18 points and back into expansion territory.
  • The prices paid index jumped to 40.2, an 11.1-point increase to its highest level in nearly two years, while prices increased to 19.6, up 10.3 points. Also, the future expectations index tumbled 15 points to 22.2, and the employment index fell 4.8 points to -3.6 amid a potential trade war from tariffs. New orders also cascaded 16.4 points lower, though were still positive at 17.8.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 31 incliner, 2 decliners and 2 flats ending with a positive close of 21 incliners, 12 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was UP +0.56%, the XBI was down -0.08 while the VIX was down -0.02 points or -0.13% at 15.35

 

Monday was President’s Day – a market holiday

 

Q1/25 – February – 1 holiday, 7 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing UP (3 of 3)

  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.80 after Thursday’s -$2.17),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.16 after Thursday’s +$0.11 after Wednesday’s -$0.14),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.13),

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 30):

  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$2.96),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.71 after Thursday’s -$0.95 and Wednesday’s +$0.60),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.56 after Thursday’s -$2.59 after Wednesday’s +$0.80, Tuesday’s +$2.50 and last Friday’s +$6.23),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$2.31 after Thursday’s-$3.47 after Wednesday’s +$0.50),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.10 after Thursday’s +$0.28, Wednesday’s +$1.59, Tuesday’s -$1.46 and Friday’s -$1.26),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1,89 after Thursday’s +$0.19, Wednesday’s +$0.67, Tuesday’s +1.13 and last Friday’s -$1.03),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$1.45 after Thursday’s +$0.10),
  • Mesoblast MESO -$0.86),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.84 after Thursday’s -$0.42, Wednesday’s -$0.39, Tuesday’s +$0.55 and last Friday’s +$0.63),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.55 after Thursday’s -$0.24, Wednesday’s -$0.41, Tuesday’s -$0.10 and last Friday’s +$0.87)

 

The BOTTOM LINE: My prediction of a sliding sector (turning negative) – came TRUE as indexes drifted deeply after Wednesday’s “barely” up …

  • Monday a holiday, Tuesday and Wednesday closed positive and the bang – Thursday and Friday hit the bottom of the abyss as I had stated the sector’s advance/decline line would head south …
  • Last Friday and Thursday followed Wednesday’s positive close after Tuesday, Monday negative close
  • Friday and Thursday closed negative session after last Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending the previous Monday's negative close.

 

Theme of the session:

Indexes on Friday 2/21 plummeted on poor economic news. Consumer confidence weakened to the lowest level since November 2023, even as long-run inflation expectations rose to the highest since 1995. The services purchasing managers’ index fell into contractionary territory and January home sales contracted by more than expected.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs”.

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/21 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/20 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 25 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday – market holiday
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

I keep reiterating as earnings are about to support my theses …

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and MiMedx (MDXG)
  • Thursday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Tuesday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Monday - holiday

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: bluebird bio (BLUE), Beam Therapeutics BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: Mesoblast (MESPO), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Monday - holiday

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.