February 24, 2025 4:37pm

Admit it, today’s market was jittery and worried; it is LPS (loss-per-share) earnings season while the gap of advance/decline (A/D) line was almost a Friday look-a- like down

It’s hard to be right so often, it’s about defining insight. Who speaks out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Bought up on Monday after shot down on Friday … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13814  

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Monday: The Dow closed UP +33.19 points or +0.08%, the S&P closed DOWN -28.99 points or -0.50% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -237.08 points or -1.21%

  • Indexes and cell and gene therapy sector comeback failed to bounce back
  • After Friday’s Dow pulled back -1.69%, while the S&P 500 dived -1.7% and Nasdaq dropped 2.2%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Monday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 6 incliner, 26 decliners and 3 flats ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -0.17%, the XBI was down -1.59% while the VIX was up +0.77 points or +4.24% at 18.98

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -748.63 points or -1.69%, the S&P closed DOWN -104.39 points or -1.71% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -438.36 points or -2.20%

  • Indexes dropped like stones
  • For the week, the S&P 500 is about 1.6% lower, while the Dow lost -2.5% and the Nasdaq dived --2.4%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • PMIs fell short of expectations as manufacturing grew at a slower-than-expected pace this month, while services unexpectedly contracted, according to data from S&P Global. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.6, below the Dow Jones estimate of 52.8. The services PMI, meanwhile, fell to 49.7, its lowest level in more than two years, while economists had forecast a print of 52.8.
  • The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 64.7 in January, a decline of 10% and a steeper drop than expected as consumers feared higher inflation ahead from possible new tariffs. The 5-year inflation outlook in the survey was 3.5%, the highest since 1995.
  • On inflation, the 1-year expectation leaped to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023. At the 5-year horizon, the outlook surged to 3.5%, the highest reading since April 1995.
  • Existing home sales in the U.S. fell more than expected last month to 4.08 million units. The U.S. services purchasing managers index also dropped into contraction territory for February, according to S&P Global.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield dropped on the economic concerns.          

Friday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 30 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -0.52%, the XBI was down -1.02% while the VIX was up +2.58 points or +16.46% at 18.24

 

Q1/25 – February – 8 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Monday’s Closing UP (7 of 7) 

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.36 after Friday’s -$2.71),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.33 after Friday’s -$2.31),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.23 after Friday’s -$2.10),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.19),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.18 after Friday’s +$0.16),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.09),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.01)

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Monday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 27): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.65),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.63 after Friday’s +$1.80),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.36),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.34 after Friday’s -$2.56),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.96 after Friday’s -$1.45),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.95 after Friday’s -$0.84),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.75 after Friday’s -$1,89),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.66),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.43),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.34),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: what move stock price? It’s still all about fundamentals.

  • When building a portfolio, think - risk tolerance and understand volatility, handle the swings but focus on timing!

New week, 2/24 through 2/28 – closing negative.

  • Last Monday was a holiday, Tuesday and Wednesday closed positive and the bang – Thursday and Friday hit the bottom of the abyss as I had stated the sector’s advance/decline line would head south
  • The previous Friday and Thursday followed Wednesday’s positive close after Tuesday, Monday negative close
  • The previous, previous Friday and Thursday closed negative session after last Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending the previous Monday's negative close.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs”.

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – Monday, 3/3
  • 3/5 – Editas medicine (EDIT) – Wednesday, 3/5

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/13 - Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 2/21 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/20 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 25 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday – market holiday
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

I keep reiterating as earnings are about to support my theses …

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Beam therapeutics (BEAM) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and MiMedx (MDXG)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Friday: bluebird bio (BLUE), Beam Therapeutics BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.