February 26, 2025 4:54pm

Sector downside revisits lows

Uncertainty around President Trump’s trade policy heightened worried markets. During his 1st cabinet meeting, Trump stated that tariffs against Canada and Mexico will take effect. He also declared he would soon expand his trade war to include 25% tariff on goods from the European Union.

Who speaks up and out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Sharpen the pencil, and put the green eyeshades for a buying opportunity? … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13818

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -188.04 points or -0.43%, the S&P closed UP +0.88 points or +0.01% while the Nasdaq closed UP +48.88 points or +0.26%

  • Dow dives, S&P snaps a 5-day losing streak while NASDAQ rises

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • New home sales numbers came in below economists’ estimates last month with 657,000 sales of new single-family homes sold in January. Economists expected the figure to come in at 671,000.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.82%, the XBI was down -0.44% while the VIX was down -0.33 points or -1.70% at 19.10

 

As compared to:

Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +159.95 points or +0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN -28 points or -0.47% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -260.54 points or -1.35%

  • As traders weighed concerns around economic growth and global trade

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 98.3 for the month, down nearly 7% and below the Dow Jones forecast for 102.3. This was the lowest reading since June 2024 and the largest monthly drop since August 2021.
  • Along with the overall drop in confidence, the Expectations Index tumbled 9.3 points to a 72.9 reading, the first time since June 2024 that the measure has fallen below the level consistent with recession. Current conditions measured improved somewhat, with 19.6% saying conditions are “good,” up 1.1% point from January.
  • However, a closely watched measure of the labor market saw a worsening, with 33.4% saying that jobs were “plentiful” while 16.3% said positions are “hard to get.” That compared to respective readings of 33.9% and 14.5% in January.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 5 incliners, 28 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.88%, the XBI was down -1.44% while the VIX was up +0.36 points or +1.90% at 19.34

 

Q1/25 – February – 10 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Wednesday’s Closing UP (13 of 13)

  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.82 after Tuesday’s -$1.04 after Monday’s -$0.75),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.68),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.33 after Tuesday’s +$0.19 after Monday’s +$0.33),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.30 after Tuesday’s -$0.62 after Monday’s -$1.63),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.27 after Tuesday’s -$0.82 after Monday’s -$0.96),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$1.22 after Monday’s +$0.23),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.80 after Monday’s -$0.66),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.08),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.01),
  • Agenus (AGEN +$0.04),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.59 after Monday’s -$0.95),
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.0299)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.02),

Flat (3)

  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX) 
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB),

Wednesday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 19):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.95 after Tuesday’s -$0.95 after Monday’s +$0.36),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.34 after Tuesday’s -$3.74 after Monday’s -$1.65),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.65 after Tuesday’s +$2.10 after Monday’s +$0.01),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.33),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN -$0.17 after Tuesday and Monday’s $0.00)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.17),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.16),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.58),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.11),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$2.06 after Monday’s -$1.34),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I wrote on Monday, what moves stock pricing?

  • It’s still all about algorisms and electronic trading as many forget fundamentals is earnings season hampered by the known and unknown uncertainties.

When building a portfolio, understand - risk tolerance and understand volatility, handle the swings and focus on timing!

  • New week, 2/24 through 2/28 – Monday and Tuesday closed negative heading further into Wednesday’s negative close
  • Last Monday was a holiday, Tuesday and Wednesday closed positive and the bang – Thursday and Friday hit the bottom of the abyss as I had stated the sector’s advance/decline line would head south
  • The previous Friday and Thursday followed Wednesday’s positive close after Tuesday, Monday negative close
  • The previous, previous Friday and Thursday closed negative session after last Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending the previous Monday's negative close.

 

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs”.

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • AxoGen (AXGN) -Tuesday, 2/25
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) - Tuesday, 2/25
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – Monday, 3/3
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) – Wednesday, 3/5
  • Agenus (AGEN) – Tuesday, 3/11

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/26 - Wednesday ended with a negative close at the close of 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/25 – Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 28 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/24 - Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 2/21 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/20 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 25 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday – market holiday
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

I keep reiterating as earnings are about to support my theses …

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), uniQure NV (QURE) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Tuesday: AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Wednesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and uniQure NV (QURE)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.