February 27, 2025 4:56pm

A jump in jobless claims and diminishing home sales subdued sentiment, adding to concerns of economic softening with tomorrow’s personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE); the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge

Who speaks up and out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: NOT published this a.m., a break was needed from negativity, that lasted another session. My “patient” is doing well in recovery!

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -193.62 points or -0.45%, the S&P closed DOWN -94.49 points or -1.59% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -530.84 points or -2.78%

  • A volatile session, following econs decline as President Trump’s declaration that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would proceed as planned
  • With just one trading sessions left in February, all 3 major averages are on pace to finish lower

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Jobless claims for the week ending Feb. 22 came in at 242,000. This was up 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 225,000, according to a Labor Department report Thursday.
  • Pending sales dropped 4.6% from December to the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking this metric in 2001. Sales were down 5.2% from January 2024. These sales are an indicator of future closings. 

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 20 incliner, 13 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 26 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.56%, the XBI was down -1.15% while the VIX was up +2.03 points or +10.61% at 21.13

 

As compared to:  Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -188.04 points or -0.43%, the S&P closed UP +0.88 points or +0.01% while the Nasdaq closed UP +48.88 points or +0.26%

  • Dow dives, S&P snaps a 5-day losing streak while NASDAQ rises

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • New home sales numbers came in below economists’ estimates last month with 657,000 sales of new single-family homes sold in January. Economists expected the figure to come in at 671,000.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 13 incliners, 19 decliners and 3 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.82%, the XBI was down -0.44% while the VIX was down -0.33 points or -1.70% at 19.10

 

Q1/25 – February – 11 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Thursday’s Closing UP (8 of 8) 

  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.40 after Wednesday’s +$0.68),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.45 after Wednesday’s +$0.82 after Tuesday’s -$1.04 after Monday’s -$0.75),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.22),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.13 after Wednesday’s +$0.05 after Tuesday’s +$0.01),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.80 after Monday’s -$0.66),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.04 after Wednesday’s $0.00),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.03),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.02 after Wednesday’s -$0.17),

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Thursday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 26):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$6.76 after Wednesday’s -$1.34 after Tuesday’s -$3.74 after Monday’s -$1.65),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$3.23 after Wednesday’s +$0.33 after Tuesday’s +$0.19 after Monday’s +$0.33),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$2.49 after Wednesday’s +$0.30 after Tuesday’s -$0.62 after Monday’s -$1.63),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.58 after Wednesday’s +$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.59 after Monday’s -$0.95),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.98 after Wednesday’s +$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$1.22 after Monday’s +$0.23),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.78 after Wednesday’s -$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$2.06 after Monday’s -$1.34),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.78 after Wednesday’s -$1.95 after Tuesday’s -$0.95 after Monday’s +$0.36),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.69 after Wednesday’s +$0.27 after Tuesday’s -$0.82 after Monday’s -$0.96),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.41),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.27 after Wednesday’s +$0.04),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: As I wrote on Monday, what moves stock pricing?

  • It’s still all about econs, tariffs, algorisms and electronic trading as many forget fundamentals while is earnings season hampered by LPS (loss-per-share), knocked-down consensus and missed estimates hampered by the usual … known and unknown uncertainties.

When building a portfolio, understand - risk tolerance and understand volatility, handle the swings and focus on timing!

  • New week, 2/24 through 2/28 – Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday’s negative closes
  • Last Monday was a holiday, Tuesday and Wednesday closed positive and the bang – Thursday and Friday hit the bottom of the abyss as I had stated the sector’s advance/decline line would head south
  • The previous Friday and Thursday followed Wednesday’s positive close after Tuesday, Monday negative close
  • The previous, previous Friday and Thursday closed negative session after last Wednesday and Tuesday’s session closed positive upending the previous Monday's negative close.

 

For the week:

  • The S&P 500 is down 151.56 points, or 2.5%.
  • The Dow is down 188.52 points, or 0.4%.
  • The Nasdaq is down 979.59 points, or 5%.
  • The Russell 2000 is down 55.69 points, or 2.5%.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs”.

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • AxoGen (AXGN) -Tuesday, 2/25 … Only Net Income
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) - Tuesday, 2/25
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26
  • Vericel (VCEL) – Thursday, 2/27
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Thursday, 2/27
  • uniQure NV (QURE) - Thursday, 2/27
  • Verve therapeutics (VERV) - Thursday, 2/27
  • MiMedx (MDXG) - Thursday, 2/27
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – Monday, 3/3
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT) – Wednesday, 3/5
  • Agenus (AGEN) – Tuesday, 3/11

 

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/27 - Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 26 decliners and 1 flat
  • 2/26 - Wednesday ended with a negative close at the close of 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/25 – Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 28 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/24 - Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 2/21 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/20 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 25 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday – market holiday
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

I keep reiterating as earnings are about to support my theses …

As I have written “Many sector companies are engaged in cost realignment programs, which won’t be realized consequences over the next few Qs where the operating expense levels; spending on SG&A (selling, informational, and administrative) and R&D (research and development) facilitate the need to extend runways and enable expectation of clinical innovations.”

  • "I think the market's going to come back to earnings, the first couple of months of 2025, and 1st H/25 will be a shifting cell and gene therapy sector due to earnings releases... I still believe stocks will swing upward pre and them more post releases

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Thursday: uniQure NV (QURE), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), uniQure NV (QURE) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Tuesday: AxoGen (AXGN), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Moderna (MRNA)
  • Wednesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and uniQure NV (QURE)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.