February 28, 2025 7:18am

After February’s 11 negative sector closes, 7 positive closes and 1 holiday stuck in the middle of “our” universe’s earnings season

It’s been a terrible February for the stock market; a short month and today is its final trading session.

A "falling knife or bent fork" session?

 

Breaking: The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.3% for the month and showed a 2.5% annual rate. Excluding food and energy, core PCE also rose 0.3% for the month and was at 2.6% annually.

No false narratives or fake news; to read insights and analysis on the latest sector action, check out Pre-Open Brief … I am NOT often wrong and always consider doubt of some market and sector share pricing movements

Never leave an investor uninform

 

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Thursday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell:  sector: A death ray to the sector as beaten down econs and tariff disclosure focused the laser … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13820   

 

Friday; the pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.53% or (+228 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.33% or (+19 points) and Nasdaq futures are UP +0.18% or (+37 points)

  • Stock futures rose on Friday, 2/28/25
  • European markets slipped into negative territory reacting to tariff threats,
  • Asia-Pacific markets fell after President Trump confirmed tariffs,

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -193.62 points or -0.45%, the S&P closed DOWN -94.49 points or -1.59% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -530.84 points or -2.78%

  • For the week in February, the Nasdaq has slid around 5%; the S&P 500 has slid 2.5%, while the Dow retreated -0.4%
  • For the month of February, the Nasdaq slipped -5.5%, the S&P and Dow are down -3%.

Economic Data Docket: Personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, Advanced retail inventories, Advanced wholesale inventories and Chicago Business Barometer (PMI)

  • Economists expect the measure of price changes for consumers to rise 0.3% from December for an annualized gain of 2.5%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PCE is expect to increase by 0.3% month over month and 2.6% year over year.                     

 

Q1/25: February – 11 negative and 7 positive closes

  • January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24:

  • December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
  • November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

  • Not for me this sesssion

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Econ releases sustains uncertainties creating sector and market volatility as traders attempted to trade the risk.

  • "It's one of those things where you do have to break some eggs to make an omelet. And I think we're going to be in the egg-breaking stage for the next six months to a year. ... The market has to really digest those [tariffs and other measures] to see real progress somewhere down the line." <Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading>

 

Reiterating, "Short sellers, who bet on stock prices to fall, have lost $73 billion between US and Canadian markets to start 2025, according to data from S3 Partners. The rallies in the market have not been kind to short sellers,"

  • "Short sellers are guaranteed future buyers ... when shorts are getting squeezed, these can become forced liquidations." <S3 partners head of predictive analyst Ihor Dusaniwsky, Yahoo Finance>

 

Reiterating, “I think it's important just to take a step back, focus on the fundamentals, be selective. I mean, this has definitely been a “sucky” month from a stock-picker standpoint given the up/downs. And so, I am relatively neutral across today/Friday’s equity strategy.

  • Reiterating, “Take the emotion out of the sector, think of the reality of the “plays” that exist of who’s really buying.”

 

It’s earnings season “sparking” a quarterly life crisis…

  • Cell and Gene therapy earnings continue to be important; LPS (loss per share), revenue uplifts and lags, clinical progress with some program uncertainty, a dearth all followed by estimate misses
  • The coming batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

 

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject.

  • However, “our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released pre-lim unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024 at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference!

I think speculative behavior in this current market has ascended to a level beyond common sense

  • Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity; sector companies will seek opportunities to sell to better financed companies that can "deal with these additional costs associated of R&D and escalating SG&A.”
  • NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

 

Prepare for earnings and more market volatility related to inflation oriented econs …

February ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 2/28 - Friday, February's last sessionj
  • 2/27 - Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 26 decliners and 1 flat
  • 2/26 - Wednesday ended with a negative close at the close of 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/25 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 5 incliner, 28 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/24 - Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
  • 2/21 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 3 incliner, 30 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/20 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 7 incliner, 25 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/19 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/18 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/17 – Monday was a market holiday – President’s Day
  • 2/14 – Friday - ended with a positive close at the close of 20 incliner, 11 decliners and 4 flats
  • 2/13 – Thursday ended with a positive close at the close of 23 incliner, 10 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/12 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 21 incliner, 12 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/11 - Tuesday ended with a negative close at the close of 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/10 – Monday ended with a negative close at the close of 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/7 – Friday ended with a negative close at the close of 2 incliner, 31 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/6 – Thursday ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 24 decliners and 3 flats
  • 2/5 - Wednesday ended with a positive close at the close of 26 incliner, 4 decliners and 5 flats
  • 2/4 - Tuesday ended with a positive close at the close of 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • 2/3 – Monday - ended with a negative close at the close of 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - Tuesday, 2/11
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – Thursday, 2/13
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Thursday, 2/13
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE). Thursday, 2/13
  • Moderna (MRNA) - Friday, 2/14
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals IONS) – Wednesday, 2/19
  • AxoGen (AXGN) – Tuesday, 2/25 - only Net Income
  • MiMedx (MDXG) – Wednesday, 2/26
  • Mesoblast (MESO) – Wednesday, 2/26
  • Vericel (VCEL) – Thursday, 2/27
  • Intellia therapeutics (NTLA) - Thursday, 2/27
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV) - Thursday, 2/27
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – Monday, 3/3
  • AxoGen (AXGN) – Tuesday, 3/4

 

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

  • Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
  • Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.