RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: New month of March welcome

March 3, 2025 7:41am

And a very divided Q1/25 so far as the share pricing goes as Q4/FY24 earnings continue

Thus fits the ides of March, the term "Ides" comes from the Latin word iduare, which means "to divide"

Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, 2 Negative and 6 Positive Indications

News: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.02 pre-open) announced positive topline data from the Company’s single ascending dose (SAD) trial of VY7523, an investigational anti-tau antibody developed to selectively inhibit the spread of pathological tau in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In the SAD trial, data on VY7523 delivered intravenously demonstrated safety, tolerability, and dose-proportional pharmacokinetics (PK). VYGR has initiated a multiple ascending dose (MAD) trial of VY7523 in patients with early AD, which is expected to generate initial tau positron emission tomography (PET) imaging data in the second half of 2026.

Earnings: BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

No false narratives or fake news; to read insights and analysis on the latest sector action, check out Pre-Open Brief …

Never leave an investor uninform

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

Friday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell:  the sector train that could and did fulfill share pricing optimism … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13822

Monday; the pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.39% or (+171 points), the S&P futures are UP +0.54% or (+32 points) and the Nasdaq futures are UP +0.78% or (+163 points)

• Stock futures edged higher Monday, 3/3/25,
• European markets were higher,
• Asia-Pacific markets mostly up/positive

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the econs to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Friday: The Dow closed UP +601.41 points or +1.39%, the S&P closed UP +92.93 points or +1.59% while the Nasdaq closed UP +902.86 points or +1.63%

The S&P 500 declined 1.4% in February, while the Dow dropped -1.6% and the Nasdaq slipped -4% loss, marking its worst month since April 2024.

Economic Data Docket: S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI, Construction spending - Jan., ISM manufacturing          Feb., St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks and Auto sales

Q1/25:  March sessions begins 3/3

• February – 1 holiday, 11 negative and 8 positive closes
• January – 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24:

• December 1 holiday, 15 negative and 5 positive closes
• November 10 negative and 9 positive closes
• October: 8 positive and 15 negative closes

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

Sell into Strength:

AxoGen (AXGN) closed up +$0.58 with a positive +$0.64 or +3.20%

Pre-Open indications:

Negative:

Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$1.67 with a negative -$0.08 or -0.16%

Mesoblast (MESO) closed up +$1.61 with a negative -$0.97 or -5.66%

Positive:

Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) closed up +$0.31 with a positive +$0.19 or +4.01%

Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.31 with a positive +$0.66 or +2.51%

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.30 with a positive +$0.79 indication

Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up =$0.09 with a positive +$0.04 or +2.08%

Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.77 with a positive +$0.19 or +1.88%

Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS) closed up +$1.84 with a positive +$0.58 or +1.75%

The BOTTOM LINE: the new week and start of a new month, March …

• Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to come into effect on Tuesday, with no indication President Donald Trump's March 4 date will be pushed back again. The exact level of duties to be placed on imports from the US's northern and southern neighbors still lacks clarity, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested to Fox News that it is a "fluid situation."
• In economic data, the highlight is the February jobs report due Friday. The report is expected to reveal modest job growth last month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4%. This comes after data was released last week showing consumer spending unexpectedly fell 0.2% last month, raising fresh concerns about the health of the US economy and its consumers.
• Interest rates have fallen since the start of the year, but that hasn't given stocks much of a boost.
• The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) fell to its lowest level of the year this week, hovering around 4.3%. In theory, the sharp decline in rates should have given more juice to the stock market since investors no longer have to compete with ultra-attractive bond returns. Lower rates also typically translate to lower borrowing costs for corporations, which often boost earnings and lift share prices.
• Consumer confidence plummeted in February, notching its biggest monthly decline in nearly four years as 12-month inflation expectations jumped and recession fears escalated.
• <Yahoo Finance>

Econ releases sustains uncertainties creating sector and market volatility as traders attempted to trade the risk.

• "It's one of those things where you do have to break some eggs to make an omelet. And I think we're going to be in the egg-breaking stage for the next six months to a year. ... The market has to really digest those [tariffs and other measures] to see real progress somewhere down the line." <Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading>

Short sellers, who bet on stock prices to fall, have lost $73 billion between US and Canadian markets to start 2025, according to data from S3 Partners provided to Yahoo Finance. "The rally in the market was not kind to short sellers,"

• "Short sellers are guaranteed future buyers ... when shorts are getting squeezed, these can become forced liquidations." <S3 partners head of predictive analyst Ihor Dusaniwsky, Yahoo Finance>

Reiterating, “I think it's important just to take a step back, focus on the fundamentals, be selective. I mean, this has definitely been a “sucky” month from a stock-picker standpoint given the up/downs. And so, I am relatively neutral across today/Friday’s equity strategy.

• Reiterating, “Take the emotion out of the sector, think of the reality of the “plays” that exist of who’s really buying.”

It’s earnings season “sparking” a quarterly life crisis…

• Cell and Gene therapy earnings continue to be important; LPS (loss per share), revenue uplifts and lags, clinical progress with some program uncertainty, a dearth all followed by estimate misses
• The coming batch of quarterly earnings will provide last years, FY2024’s LPS (loss-per-share), some EPS, consensus meets and non-greets, cash positions, runways and partner status for investors

Think about it; one of the biggest problems with the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing is …  99% of them have no earnings! If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject.

• However, “our” universe’s share pricing is still “dangling” beneath upcoming Q4/2024 earnings releases with no umbrella although some sector companies released pre-lim unaudited snapshots of Q4 and FY2024 at JP Morgan Healthcare Conference!

I think speculative behavior in this current market has ascended to a level beyond common sense

• Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity; sector companies will seek opportunities to sell to better financed companies that can "deal with these additional costs associated of R&D and escalating SG&A.”
• NOT much has changed, as I have written, “uncle algo and his trading dwarfs” determine the heights or lows of share pricing”

Prepare for earnings and more market volatility related to inflation oriented econs …

Earnings are a-comin’ … from Q4/24 and FY24 are due …

• BioLife Solutions (BLFS) – Today, 3/3
• AxoGen (AXGN) – Tuesday, 3/4

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space as Partners are the gift of life!

• "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in the market… capital expansion is second.

I seem to be asking a question followed by a question …

• Do we need to brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect?
• Is this market STILL “bubblicious” my concerns are macroeconomic and valuation

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

• The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
• I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.