March 18, 2025 4:44pm

After St. Patrick’s Day, indexes and the cell and gene therapy sector causing (?) “a great fall”

All the king's horses and all the king's men waited for “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” to eventually put the Humpty sector together again

More than a riddle having been used to demonstrate the second law of thermodynamics

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed!  

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

My mission is to provide clear, actionable guidance on a regular basis to help investors and traders navigate the uncertain and often irrational financial markets. I put hours of effort to create reporting, while leveraging my 40 years of operating and research experiences to analyze the key market-moving events and distill that into a cogent outlook.

 

Monday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: there is always uncertainty, as sector reverses negative open to positive close … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13843

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -260.32 points or -0.62%, the S&P closed DOWN -60.45 points or -1.06% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -304.54 points or -1.71%

  • Indexes pulled back Tuesday as a sell-off that has engulfed recent weeks resumed after 2 straight winning sessions while the Nasdaq still sits in a correction, falling at least 10% from a recent high

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Factory output posted a better-than-expected showing in February as auto manufacturing ramped up, industrial production increased 0.7% on the month, better than the 0.3% increase in January and ahead of the estimate for a gain of 0.3%. Manufacturing increased 0.9%, pushed by an 8.5% surge in motor vehicles and parts. At the same time, capacity utilization rose to 78.2%, up 0.5% points from January and better than the outlook for 77.8%.
  • Import prices increased 0.4% on the month, the biggest move since April 2024; export prices, were up just 0.1% as export air passenger fares tumbled 13%.              
  • New construction was stronger than expected in February Privately owned housing starts totaled a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million, an 11.2% jump from January and better than the 1.38 million Dow Jones estimate, according to Census Bureau data. Building permits totaled 1.46 million for the month, slightly above the forecast, though 1.2% below January. Housing completions totaled 1.59 million, a 4% drop from January.
  • Mortgage rates declined steadily during the month, falling about 0.3% points, according to Freddie Mac.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.89%, the XBI was down -2.14% while the VIX was up +1.19 points or +5.80% at 1.70.

 

As compared to … Monday: The Dow closed UP +353.45 points or +0.85%, the S&P closed UP +36.19 points or +0.65% while the Nasdaq closed UP +54.58 points or +0.31%

  • Back from correction territory in a near-term counter-trend rally

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • February retail sales report, sales increased 0.2% on the month, below the estimate for a 0.6% increase excluding autos, the increase was 0.3%, which was in line with economists’ expectations.
  • The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index slipped to 39, down 3 points from the prior month and below the estimate for 42. A reading below 50 indicates pessimism. The March reading was the lowest in seven months. The level of builders reporting price reductions increased to 29%, up 3% points compared to February. The average price reduction was 5%, unchanged on the month, while the use of incentives also was flat at 59%.

Monday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 12 incliner, 20 decliners and 3 flats ending with a positive close of 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +1.91%, the XBI was up +1.16% while the VIX was down -1.29 points or -5.93% at 20.98

 

Q1/25 – March, 6 positive and 7 negative closes

  • February – 12 holiday, 11 negative and 7 positive closes
  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Tuesday’s Closing UP (7 of 7) 

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.81 after Monday’s -$1.86)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.80),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.17),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.045 after Monday’s -$0.015),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.0301),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.01),
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQG: HRGN +$0.01 after Monday's $0.00),

Flat (1)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Tuesday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 27): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.81 after Monday’s +$11.35),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$2.55 after Monday’s +$2.56),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.93),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.85 after Monday’s +$0.70
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.35 after Monday’s +$1.34),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.30 after Monday’s +$2.22),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$1.22 after Monday’s +$0.33
  • Moderna (MRNA -$0.90),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.78),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.65),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: New week, the 3rd of March … Tuesday closed negative after Monday’s positive closes

  • A positive Friday sector close following Thursday’s negative close after 2 positive (Wednesday & Tuesday) closes following Monday’s negative close.
  • The previous Friday, 3/7 – the 5th NEGATIVE session in the week intermingled by 1 POSITIVE (Wednesday) close in a new month of March … so, what moves stock pricing?

 

“I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

  • If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and more.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs.” <me>
  • Individual investors yanked more than $1 billion from U.S. equities on Tuesday and even more as week continued …
  • A comedown in sentiment among retail investors, who have become a significant part of the U.S. equity market in recent months. <Pia Singh, CNBC>

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ) – Wednesday, 3/19

March ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 3/18 - Tuesday closed negative with 7 positive, 27 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/17 – Monday closed positive with 24positive, 10 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/14 – Friday closed positive with 20 positive, 13 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/13 - Thursday closed negative with 4 positive, 30 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/12 – Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/11 – Tuesday closed positive with 23 positive, 11 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/10 – Monday closed negative with 3 positive, 31 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/7 - Friday closed negative with 14 positive, 17 negative and 4 flats
  • 3/6 – Thursday closed negative with 16 positive, 18 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/5 – Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 3 /4 – Tuesday closed negative with 15 positive, 18 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/3 – Monday closed negative with 2 positive, 31 negative and 2 flats

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy companies drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection … i.e., sink-in!

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), uniQure NV (QURE) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Mesoblast (MESO) and Agenus (AGEN)
  • Friday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.