March 21, 2025 4:46pm

This week Friday’s session was volatile, as stock options, index futures, index options and single-stock futures expire followed by President Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline looming over the market

I see/feel the uncertainty around economic trends, econ data, both hard and soft; mixed signals particularly related to inflation, your portfolio unblocking’s cleared to a degree after nibbling on sector equities

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The week in Review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

My mission is to provide clear, actionable guidance on a regular basis to help investors and traders navigate the uncertain and often irrational financial markets. I put hours of effort to create reporting, while leveraging my 40 years of operating and research experiences to analyze the key market-moving events and distill that into a cogent outlook.

 

Friday’s pre-open, RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: Triple Witching Day, the first of 2025 … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13849

Wednesday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: a short-term window … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13848

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +32.03 points or +0.08%, the S&P closed UP +4.67 points or +0.08% while the Nasdaq closed UP +92.43 points or +0.52%

  • Indexes made it barely positive Friday, avoiding a 5th straight week of losses

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Homebuilder stocks fell broadly Friday in sympathy with Lennar, which tumbled 5.3% after its new orders guidance for the current quarter missed expectations. Shares of Lennar fell to their lowest level since 2023.

Friday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 9 incliner, 22 decliners and 4 flats ending with a barely positive close of 17 incliners, 16 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +0.84%, the XBI was up +0.53% while the VIX was down -0.54 points or -2.73% at 19.26

 

As compared to ... Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -11.31 points or -0.03%, the S&P closed DOWN -12.40 points or -0.22% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -59.16 points or -0.33%

  • Indexes ticked lower on Thursday as uncertainty around the U.S. economy continued to weigh on equities

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Sales of existing homes rose 4.2% in February from January, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 M units. However, sales were down 1.2% from the same period a year ago. But that was still better than what economists were anticipating.
  • The latest housing data alleviated concerns of an impending recession, but any rally over the next 2 weeks is unlikely to take hold

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 22 incliner, 11 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -1.83%, the XBI was down -0.83% while the VIX was down -0.05 points or -0.25% at 19.85

 

As compared to ... Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +383.32 points or +0.92%, the S&P closed UP +60.63 points or +1.08% while the Nasdaq closed UP +246.67 points or +1.41%

  • Coming off of a rough and tumble Tuesday           

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The Fed kept the federal funds rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, a decision that was widely expected

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 25 incliner, 9 decliners and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 25 incliners, 8 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.48%, the XBI was up +1.29% while the VIX was down -1.80 points or -8.29% at 19.90

 

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -260.32 points or -0.62%, the S&P closed DOWN -60.45 points or -1.06% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -304.54 points or -1.71%

  • Indexes pulled back Tuesday as a sell-off that has engulfed recent weeks resumed after 2 straight winning sessions while the Nasdaq still sits in a correction, falling at least 10% from a recent high

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Factory output posted a better-than-expected showing in February as auto manufacturing ramped up, industrial production increased 0.7% on the month, better than the 0.3% increase in January and ahead of the estimate for a gain of 0.3%. Manufacturing increased 0.9%, pushed by an 8.5% surge in motor vehicles and parts. At the same time, capacity utilization rose to 78.2%, up 0.5% points from January and better than the outlook for 77.8%.
  • Import prices increased 0.4% on the month, the biggest move since April 2024; export prices, were up just 0.1% as export air passenger fares tumbled 13%.              
  • New construction was stronger than expected in February Privately owned housing starts totaled a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million, an 11.2% jump from January and better than the 1.38 million Dow Jones estimate, according to Census Bureau data. Building permits totaled 1.46 million for the month, slightly above the forecast, though 1.2% below January. Housing completions totaled 1.59 million, a 4% drop from January.
  • Mortgage rates declined steadily during the month, falling about 0.3% points, according to Freddie Mac.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 3 incliner, 29 decliners and 3 flats ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 27 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.89%, the XBI was down -2.14% while the VIX was up +1.19 points or +5.80% at 1.70.

 

As compared to … Monday: The Dow closed UP +353.45 points or +0.85%, the S&P closed UP +36.19 points or +0.65% while the Nasdaq closed UP +54.58 points or +0.31%

  • Back from correction territory in a near-term counter-trend rally

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • February retail sales report, sales increased 0.2% on the month, below the estimate for a 0.6% increase excluding autos, the increase was 0.3%, which was in line with economists’ expectations.
  • The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index slipped to 39, down 3 points from the prior month and below the estimate for 42. A reading below 50 indicates pessimism. The March reading was the lowest in seven months. The level of builders reporting price reductions increased to 29%, up 3% points compared to February. The average price reduction was 5%, unchanged on the month, while the use of incentives also was flat at 59%.

Monday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 12 incliner, 20 decliners and 3 flats ending with a negative close of 24 incliners, 10 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +1.91%, the XBI was up +1.16% while the VIX was down -1.29 points or -5.93% at 20.98

 

Q1/25 – March, 8 positive and 8 negative closes

  • February – 12 holiday, 11 negative and 7 positive closes
  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing UP (10 of 17)

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$29.80 after Thursday’s +0.10 after Wednesday’s +$9.12, Tuesday’s -$8.81 and Monday’s +$11.35),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.43 after Thursday’s -$0.77 after Wednesday’s +$1.05 and Tuesday’s -$1.93),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.30 after Thursday’s -$0.60),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +0.29 after Thursday’s -$0.79 after Wednesday’s +$0.82 after Tuesday’s -$0.78),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.26 after Thursday’s +$0.14),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.25 after Thursday’s -$2.01 after Wednesday’s +$0.89, Tuesday’s -$2.55 and Monday’s +$2.56),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$0.21 after Thursday’s -$0.87 after Wednesday’s -$0.49 after Tuesday’s -$0.90),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.19 after Thursday’s +0.78 after Wednesday’s +$1.12, Tuesday’s +$0.81 and Monday’s -$1.86)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.61),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.09),

Flat (2)

  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

Friday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 16):

  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.92 after Thursday’s -$0.25 after Wednesday’s +$1.13, Tuesday’s -$1.30 and Monday’s +$2.22),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.50 after Thursday’s +0.19 after Wednesday’s +$0.51 and Tuesday’s +$0.17),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.32 after Thursday’s +$0.14),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.23),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.14),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.12),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.10),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.07 after Thursday’s -$0.42),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.06),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.06),

 

Addendum: Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQG: HRGN -$0.03 after Thursday’s $0.00 after Wednesday’s $0.12, Tuesday’s +$0.01 and Monday’s $0.00) - Pozi Scheme (?) a question?

 

The BOTTOM LINE: New week, the 3rd of March … riding the roller-coaster Friday and Thursday closed negative after Wednesday closed positive, Tuesday closed negative following Monday’s positive close

  • A positive Friday sector close following Thursday’s negative close after 2 positive (Wednesday & Tuesday) closes following Monday’s negative close.
  • The previous Friday, 3/7 – the 5th NEGATIVE session in the week intermingled by 1 POSITIVE (Wednesday) close in a new month of March … so, what moves stock pricing?

 

A "triple witching," or the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and index futures options, occurs

  • Goldman estimated that more than $4.7 trillion of notional options exposure will expire, including $2.8 trillion of S&P 500 options and $645 billion notional of single stock options.
  • Also said Friday’s options expiration will represent a notional value that is equal to 8.2% of the Russell 3000′s market capitalization.

 

The Russell 2000 small-cap index formed what technical analysts call a “death cross.” That’s when an asset’s 50-day moving average falls below its descending 200-day moving average. The signal can spark concern among traders, as it suggests short-term weakness amid a broader downtrend.

  • The Russell 2000′s 50-day moving average has been above the 200-day moving average since the end of 2023, but recent equity weakness and economic uncertainty have weighed on stocks, and small caps especially. So far in 2025, the index has dropped 6.5%, underperforming the S&P 500, which is down 3%.
  • History suggests that while the death cross often signals short-term pain, longer-term returns have been more resilient. In the past five instances, the Russell 2000 was negative one month later in four out of five cases. But looking one year out, the inverse was true and the index was higher four out of five times, with an average gain of 30%, including a more than 100% rally from late March 2020.
  • So, while the impending death cross may sound ominous, history suggests it could just as easily be the setup for a recovery. <Yahoo Finance>

 

“I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

  • If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and more.

 

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs.” <me>
  • Individual investors yanked more than $1 billion from U.S. equities on Tuesday and even more as week continued …
  • A comedown in sentiment among retail investors, who have become a significant part of the U.S. equity market in recent months. <Pia Singh, CNBC>

Earnings are still coming … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

 

March ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 3/21 – Friday closed barely positive with 17 positive, 16 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/20 – Thursday closed negative with 10 positive, 23 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/19 - Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 8 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/18 -Tuesday closed negative with 7 positive, 27 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/17 – Monday closed positive with 24 positive, 10 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/14 – Friday closed positive with 20 positive, 13 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/13 - Thursday closed negative with 4 positive, 30 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/12 – Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/11 – Tuesday closed positive with 23 positive, 11 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/10 – Monday closed negative with 3 positive, 31 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/7 - Friday closed negative with 14 positive, 17 negative and 4 flats
  • 3/6 – Thursday closed negative with 16 positive, 18 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/5 – Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 3 /4 – Tuesday closed negative with 15 positive, 18 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/3 – Monday closed negative with 2 positive, 31 negative and 2 flats

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy companies drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Thursday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ)
  • Tuesday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Vericel (VCEL), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
  • Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Moderna (MRNA) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Wednesday: Moderna (MRNA), Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ), Mesoblast (MESO) and Agenus (AGEN)

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.