March 28, 2025 7:20pm

As econs sink sector and markets

Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index also came out hotter-than-expected, rising 2.8% in February and reflecting a 0.4% increase for the month

While consumer sentiment also missed expectations as the University of Michigan’s final read on consumer sentiment for March came in at 57, slightly below an estimate of 57.9,

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

My mission is to provide clear, actionable guidance on a regular basis to help investors and traders navigate the uncertain and often irrational financial markets. I put hours of effort to create reporting, while leveraging my 40 years of operating and research experiences to analyze the key market-moving events and distill that into a cogent outlook.

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open:  Ain’t no bettin’ manhttps://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13858

Tuesday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: risk is still squatting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13857

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) fomerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Friday: The Dow closed DOWN -715.80 points or -1.69%, the S&P closed DOWN -112.37 points or -1.97% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -481.04 points or -2.70%

  • Sold off Friday, pressured by growing uncertainty on U.S. trade policy as well as a grim outlook on inflation

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Core personal consumption expenditures price index came out hotter-than-expected, rising 2.8% in February and reflecting a 0.4% increase for the month, increasing concerns about persistent inflation. Economists had been looking for respective numbers of 2.7% and 0.3%. Consumer spending accelerated 0.4% for the month, below the 0.5% forecast.
  • The University of Michigan’s final read on consumer sentiment for March came in at 57, slightly below a Dow Jones estimate of 57.9, as inflation expectations reach multidecade highs.

Friday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 1 incliner, 32 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was down -1.29%, the XBI was down -1.13 while the VIX was UP +2.96 points or+15.84 % at 21.65

 

Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -155.09 points or -0.37%, the S&P closed DOWN 18.89- points or -0.33% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -94.98 points or -0.53%

  • Indexes dumped after Trump announced 25% tariffs on “all cars that are not made in the United States,” which will go into effect on April 2.
  • This week so far, indexes are clinging to marginal gains; the S&P 500’s up +0.8%, the Nasdaq has gained +0.5% and the Dow has added +1%.

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Gross domestic product accelerated at a 2.4% pace for the October-through-December period. That was 0.2% points ahead of the previous estimate and came from an upward revision to consumer spending, which grew at a 4% rate in Q4/24.
  • Jobless claims totaled 224,000 for the week ending March 22, down 1,000 from the prior week and close to the estimate for 226,000. On a four-week rolling basis, claims moved lower to 224,000, down 4,750 from the prior period. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, also nudged down, falling to 1.856 million, a decrease of 25,000.

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 20 incliner, 12 decliners and 3 flats ending with a negative close of 22 incliners, 10 decliners and 3 flats

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was up +0.44%, the XBI was up +0.45% while the VIX was UP +0.36 points or +1.96% at 18.69

 

As compared to … Wednesday: The Dow closed DOWN -132.71 points or -0.31%, the S&P closed DOWN -64.45 points or -1.12% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -372.84 points or -2.04%

  • Investors are anticipating a rise in inflation
  • Also, stocks traded lower during midday trading after Bloomberg News reported that Trump is preparing an announcement on auto levies ahead of his wide-ranging tariff plans set for next week

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Durable goods orders increased 0.9% for the month, down from the upwardly revised 3.3% level in January but much better than the consensus forecast for a 1% decline. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.7%, while the increase was 0.8% when excluding defense. Non-defense capital goods order, a closely watched metric of demand, saw a 0.3% decline for the month, indicating softening capital spending plans.  

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 3 incliner, 28 decliners and 4 flats ending with a negative close of 3 incliners, 28 decliners and 4 flats

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.83%, the XBI was down -2% while the VIX was UP +1.18 points or +6.88% at 18.33

 

As compared to … Tuesday: The Dow closed UP +4.18 points or +0.01%, the S&P closed UP +9.08 points or +0.16% while the Nasdaq closed UP +83.26 points or +0.46%

  • Indexes barely make it with share pricing disabling volatility

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The Conference Board’s monthly confidence index fell to 92.9, below a forecast of 93.5. The measure for future expectations dropped to 65.2, the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the 80-level considered to be a signal for a recession ahead.

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 7 incliner, 24 decliners and 4 flats ending with a barely negative close of 7 incliners, 25 decliners and 3 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.34%, the XBI was down -1.74% while the VIX was down -0.33 points or -1.89% at 17.15

 

As compared to … Monday: The Dow closed UP +597.97 points or +1.42%, the S&P closed UP +100.01 points or +1.76% while the Nasdaq closed UP +404.54 points or +2.27%

  • investors received some encouraging words from Fed Chair Powell, who last week said that any potential negative impacts from Trump’s tariffs will likely be short-lived

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • S&P Global flash services index turned in a reading of 54.3, up from 51 in February and better than the 51.5 consensus estimate. Though the reading beat the forecast, S&P noted that the outlook hit its 2nd-lowest since October 2022 while expectations for job growth “was also subdued.” On manufacturing, the 49.8 reading was a downshift from the 52.7 in February and missed the 51.5 estimate.
  • Consumer confidence reading on Tuesday, followed by initial weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday

Monday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 31 incliner, 3 decliners and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 31 incliners, 3 decliners and 1 flat

  • The small-cap Russell 2000 index gained about 2% in trading on Monday

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was up +1.73%, the XBI was up +1.69% while the VIX was down -1.77 points or -9.18% at 17.51

 

Q1/25 – March, 10 positive and 11 negative closes

  • February – 12 holiday, 11 negative and 7 positive closes
  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Friday’s Closing UP (2 of 2)

  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.29).
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +0.02 after Thursday’s +$0.28 and Wednesday’s -$1.31),

Flat (2)

  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 31): 

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.56 after Thursday’s +$1.81 after Wednesday’s -$11.75 after Tuesday’s -$9.74 after Monday’s +$7.36),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$1.57 after Thursday’s -$0.35 after Wednesday’s -$1.54 after Tuesday’s +$0.02 after Monday’s +$1.58),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$1.19 after Thursday’s -$0.55),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals RARE -$1.07 after Thursday’s +$0.91 after Wednesday’s -$0.71 after Tuesday’s -$0.79),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.05 after Thursday’s -$1.14 after Wednesday’s -$1.71 after Tuesday’s -$1.73 after Monday’s +$1.40),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.01 after Thursday’s -$0.99 after Wednesday’s -$2.36 after Tuesday’s -$2.19 after Monday’s +$6.55),
  • Moderna (MRNA -$1.00 after Thursday’s +$0.64 after Wednesday’s -$2.37),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ -$0.89 after Thursday’s +$0.44),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.65 after Thursday’s -$0.52 after Wednesday’s -$0.71),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.63 after Thursday’s +$0.19),

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  From last night, “investors NEED to REMEMBER the use of fundamentals to re-generate conviction in the face of declining share pricing.”

New week, the 4th of March …Monday closed positive followed by negative closes on Tuesday and Wednesday … a positive on Thursday followed by a negative close on Friday

  • Friday and Thursday closed negative after Wednesday closed positive, Tuesday closed negative following Monday’s positive close
  • A positive Friday sector close following Thursday’s negative close after 2 positive (Wednesday & Tuesday) closes following Monday’s negative close.
  • The previous Friday, 3/7 – the 5th NEGATIVE session in the week intermingled by 1 POSITIVE (Wednesday) close in a new month of March … so, what moves stock pricing?

 

One point on Friday,

  • The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) soared nearly 20% from its close on Thursday, touching a lunchtime high of 22.18, which was only the highest absolute level since March 18 and the largest percentage increase since March 10.
  • The VIX Index measures traders’ expectations for how much the S&P 500 might move in either direction, up or down, over the next 30 days, using options prices. When the VIX is high, traders are thought to be skittish, contemplating large swings in prices and when the VIX is low, investors are considered to be calm and complacent.
  • The VIX this month soared as high as 29.57 during a market sell-off on March 11, after ending February at 19.63. The VIX low for the month of March came earlier this week, on Wednesday March 26, after a three-day rebound in stocks drove the index down to 16.97.

 

“I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

  • If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-FBI, x-military officer and an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets and more.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs.” <me>

Earnings are still coming, almost completed … for Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

 

March ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 3/28 – Friday closed negative with 2 positive, 31 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/27 – Thursday closed positive with 22 positive, 10 negative and 3 flats
  • 3/26 – Wednesday closed negative with 3 positive, 28 negative and 4 flats
  • 3/25 - Tuesday closed negative with 7 positive, 25 negative and 3 flats
  • 3/24 - Monday closed positive with 31 positive, 3 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/21 – Friday closed negative with 17 positive, 16 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/20 – Thursday closed negative with 10 positive, 23 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/18 -Tuesday closed negative with 7 positive, 27 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/19 - Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 8 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/17 – Monday closed positive with 24 positive, 10 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/14 – Friday closed positive with 20 positive, 13 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/13 - Thursday closed negative with 4 positive, 30 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/12 – Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/11 – Tuesday closed positive with 23 positive, 11 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/10 – Monday closed negative with 3 positive, 31 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/7 - Friday closed negative with 14 positive, 17 negative and 4 flats
  • 3/6 – Thursday closed negative with 16 positive, 18 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/5 – Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/4 – Tuesday closed negative with 15 positive, 18 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/3 – Monday closed negative with 2 positive, 31 negative and 2 flats

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy companies drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: bluebird bio (BLUE) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Wednesday: Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO
  • Tuesday: AxoGen (AXGN), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)
  • Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Mesoblast (MESO)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP
  • Monday: Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Generation Bio (GBIO)
  • Vericel (VCEL), Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.