April 16, 2025 7:57am

Love them and mostly hate recently; brace ourself for more economics and their down trending affect

Reiterating, volatility tends to incite fear and uncertainty; it can also pave the way for buy and sell opportunities

 

Breaking: Retail sales showed an increase of 1.4% on the month, better than the 1.2% estimate and higher than the 0.2% increase in February. Excluding autos, the numbers also were strong than expected, with sales up 0.5% compared with the 0.3% forecast. Motor vehicle and parts dealers reported a surge of 5.3% in sales. Sporting goods, hobby and music stores saw a 2.4% increase while building material and garden stores rose 3.3%. Food service and drinking places were up 1.8%, while gasoline stations reported a 2.5% decline as prices fell during the month.

Pre-open Indications: 1 Sell into Strength, 2 Positive and 2 Negative

No false narratives or fake news; to read insights and analysis on the latest sector action, check out Pre-Open Brief

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Remember that overnight and pre-open actions’ futures and markets doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in today’s market session.

“I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened to make “it” happen today!

 

Tuesday’s night’s … RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: SLIPPIN’ AND SLIDING … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13881

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN), The chokehold got tighter cutting-off any capacity to lift multiple going concern at-risk marker … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Wednesday: The pre-open Dow futures are DOWN -0.19% or (-76 points), the S&P futures are DOWN -0.90% or (-49 points) and the Nasdaq futures are DOWN -1.67% or (-317.25 points)

  • Futures are slipping on Wednesday, 4/16,
  • European markets slipped,
  • Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall

 

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -155.83 points or -0.38%, the S&P closed DOWN -9.34 points or -0.17% while the Nasdaq close DOWN -8,32 points or -0.05%

  • Monday: The Dow closed UP +312.08 points or +0.78%, the S&P closed UP +42.61 points or +0.79% while the Nasdaq close UP +107.03 points or +0.64%

Economic Data Docket: multiple

  • U.S. retail sales  March                  
  • Retail sales minus autos March                  
  • Industrial production      March                  
  • Capacity utilization          March                  
  • Business inventories       Feb.                      
  • Home builder confidence index

               

Q2- April – 6 negative and 5 positive closes

  • Q1/25 – March, 10 positive and 11 negative closes
  • February – 12 holiday, 11 negative and 7 positive closes
  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

 

Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context

I post about “indication intelligence” looking toward investment conferences … to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths.

A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.

  • Better part of valor to not lead any investor to temptation; yet again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications as to expectation while the aftermarket blanked while the pre-open waits for the …  econs, it is still a mix of ups, downs and just uncertainty

Although … trending tickers … MY thoughts

Positive Indications:

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$9.08 after Monday’s +$2.24 after Friday’s +$11.49 with a positive +$1.98 or +0.86% pre-market.

Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed down -$1.08 after Monday’s +$1.69 with a positive +$0.45 or +0.55% pre-open

 

Negative Indications:

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$0.14 after Monday’s -$0.49 and Friday’s +$5.04 with a negative -$0.55 or -1.41% pre-market

Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed up +$0.85 after Monday’s +$0.86 with a negative -$0.06 or -1.21% pre-open after news of LLY “deal”

 

Sell into Strength Indications:

Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE closed up +$0.42 after Monday’s +$0.78, Friday’s +$0.98, Thursday’s -$0.75, Wednesday’s +$2.85, last Tuesday’s -$1.08 and the previous Monday’s -$0.29) with a positive +$0.65 or +1.84% pre-open

 

The BOTTOM LINE:  Maintaining the thought of differential

I am STILL in a RISK-ON mood! There is still a fog of uncertainty.

The cell and gene therapy sector companies are showing signs of being alternated – grabbing ANY profit on ANY upsides …

From Wall Street Journal (4/11/25) The U.S. biotech sector had already been through a brutal few years before the latest market crash. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s shake-up of the nation’s health agencies and persistently high interest rates are prompting it to sink even faster than the broader market, despite so far avoiding the worst of the tariff fallout.

  • More investors are even wondering if the whole model—risky science, costly funding, political uncertainty and long waits for payoffs—is simply broken.
  • For many of the nearly 200 companies trading below their cash value, it probably is. That illustrates the pitfalls of passively investing in an index for this sector.
  • Despite that bleak backdrop, there are still some opportunities for patient investors. After all, the U.S. is still the top spender on drugs by far. And that isn’t something RFK Jr. or President Trump is likely to change.
  • That isn’t to play down the overall risk. Even before RFK Jr.’s appointment, biotech was already reeling. Wave after wave of bankruptcies, shelved drug programs and layoffs had hollowed out the sector.
  • Dozens of companies that went public during the pandemic-era boom have been locked out of capital markets.
  • Over the past 5 years, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which tracks small- and midcap biotech stocks, has lost 14%, while the S&P 500 has gained 89%.

 

Volatility offered a minimal sign of sector equities recovery; market “cards” are “cold” after being whipsawed — and pressured — by relentless tariff headlines.

 

April ‘25: understand the “flow” of bad market and economic karma…

  • 4/14 – Tuesday closed barely positive with 17positive, 16 negative and 2 flats
  • 4/13 – Monday closed positive with 23 positive, 7 negative and 5 flats
  • 4/11 - Friday closed positive with 28 positive, 5 negative and 2 flats
  • 4/10 - Thursday closed negative with 4 positive, 30 negative and 1 flat
  • 4/9 – Wednesday closed positive with 33 positive, 1 negative and 1 flat
  • 4/8 - Tuesday closed negative with 4 positive, 30 negative and 1 flat
  • 4/7 - Monday closed negative with 13 positive, 20 negative and 2 flats
  • 4/4 – Friday closed negative with 3 positive, 30 negative and 2 flats
  • 4/3 – Thursday closed negative with 2 positive, 32 negative and 1 flat
  • 4/2 - Wednesday closed positive with 9 positive, 25 negative and 1 flat
  • 4/1 - Tuesday closed negative with 5 positive, 28 negative and 2 flats

 

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
  • I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if I wanted to be liked, I wouldn’t have been an analyst/journalist.

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.  Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.