March 7, 2025 4:53pm

Focus on separating the signal from the noise as the market and sector outlook evolves; J. Powell, Fed chair said that the central bank was seeking “greater clarity” on President Trump’s policies before making its next move on interest rates

As I had written yesterday, “For upside motion to the cell and gene therapy sector’s share pricing before “uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs” strip the positive flip”

Who speaks up and out while standing in-front, beside and behind investors – RMi

I say today what others won't, so you can do what others can't!

Never leave an investor uninformed! 

The week in review

On point, short on words, long on facts and being judicious!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

 

RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: sour sentiment represses sector share pricing … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13830

Thursday night’s RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: revisiting the badlands … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13829

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: The clock continues to tick down on Harvard Apparatus GT (OTCQB: HRGN) … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13812

 

Friday: The Dow closed UP +222.64 points or +0.52%, the S&P closed UP +31.68 points or +0.55% while the Nasdaq closed UP +126.97points or +0.70%

  • Indexes shook-off a weaker-than-expected jobs report raising further concerns about an economic softening which sent Treasury yields lower
  • All 3 of the market averages closed the trading week lower           

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • A gain of 151,000 in nonfarm payrolls for February. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in February and were up 4% on an annual basis. The jobs report also indicated that the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.1% as household employment dipped.

Friday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 14 incliners, 17 decliners and 4 flats

Metrics:  Friday, the IBB was up +0.74%, the XBI was up +0.24% while the VIX was down -1.28 points or -5.15% at 23.59

 

As compared to … Thursday: The Dow closed DOWN -427.51 points or -0.99%, the S&P closed DOWN -104.12 points or -1.78% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -483.48 points or -2.61%

  • Market indexes and sector equities resumed their steep pullback
  • The week to date, the Nasdaq has dropped more than 4%, while the Dow slipped -3.1% and S&P -3.8%

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • The outlook for stocks over the next six months in the latest American Association of Individual Investors weekly survey (57.1% vs. 60.6% last week), with only a small minority staying bullish (19.3% vs. 19.4%).
  • Unemployment benefits totaling a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ending March 1, down 21,000 from the prior period and below the Dow Jones estimate for 235,000. The total was about in line with the four-week average of 224,250. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, rose to just shy of 1.9 million, an increase of 42,000 from the prior period.

Thursday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 4 incliner, 30 decliners and 1 flat ending with a BARELY negative close of 16 incliners, 18 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Thursday, the IBB was down -0.58%, the XBI was down -0.76% while the VIX was up +3.08 points or +14.04% at 25.01

 

As compared to … Wednesday: The Dow closed UP +485.36 points or +1.14%, the S&P closed UP +64.48 points or +1.12% while the Nasdaq closed UP +267.57 points or +1.46%

  • Even with Wednesday’s respite, the 3 major indexes are still all down more than 1% on the week
  • A recovery rally after an exemption for automakers from President Trump’s tariffs offered hope for concessions

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Private companies added just 77,000 new workers for the month, well off the upwardly revised 186,000 in January and below the 148,000 estimates. The report reflected tariff concerns, as a sector that lumps together trade, transportation and utility jobs saw a loss of 33,000 positions. On the positive side, leisure and hospitality jobs jumped by 41,000, while professional and business services added 27,000 and financial activities and construction both saw gains of 25,000.

Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened with a positive 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat ending with a positive close of 25 incliners, 9 decliners and 1 flat

Metrics:  Wednesday, the IBB was up +2.43%, the XBI was up +1.69% while the VIX was down – 1.66 points or -7.04% at 21.85

 

As compared to …  Tuesday: The Dow closed DOWN -670.25 points or -1.55%, the S&P closed DOWN -71.57 points or -1.22% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -65.03 points or -0.35%

  • This week’s sell-off pushed the S&P 500 into the red for 2025 and the Dow near flat on the year
  • As the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), shot up to 23.60

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • U.S. stocks continued sliding Tuesday as President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China took effect and prompted retaliatory measures, escalating concerns among investors about the economy.                       

Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 4 incliner, 29 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 15 incliners, 18 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.12%, the XBI was up +0.53% while the VIX was up +0.82 points or +3.59% at 23.60 after Monday’s 22.93

 

As compared to … Monday: The Dow closed DOWN -649.67 points or -1.48%, the S&P closed DOWN -104.78 points or -1.76% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -497.09 points or -2.64%

  • Plans to impose import duties on key U.S. trading partners this week are shadowing markets and “our” sector; rattling investors and stirring-up volatility recently as traders worry that they will reignite inflation.           

Henry’omics: We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

  • Soft economic data … The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly manufacturing index registered a 50.3 (above 50 indicates growth) down -0.6% point from January and slightly below the 50.6 estimate.
  • Within the survey, the new orders index tumbled to 48.6, a decline of 6.5 points, while the employment index fell to 47.6; the prices index jumped 7.5 points to 62.4.

Monday’s advance/decline line opened with a negative 7 incliner, 26 decliners and 2 flats ending with a negative close of 2 incliners, 31 decliners and 2 flats

Metrics:  Monday, the IBB was down -2.79%, the XBI was down -3.09% while the VIX was up +3.30 points or +16.80% at 22.93

 

Q1/25 – March, 1 positive and 4 negative closes

  • February – 12 holiday, 11 negative and 7 positive closes
  • January - 2 holidays, 1 market close, 10 negative and 10 positive closes

Q4/24 –

  • December - 1 holiday, 6 positive and 15 negative closes
  • November – 1 holiday, 10 negative and 10 positive closes              
  • October: 8 positive and 15 negative sessions

 

Friday’s Closing UP (10 of 14)

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$22.22 after Thursday’s -$0.52 after Wednesday’s +$0.45 after Tuesday’s +$1.16 and Monday’s -$1.63),
  • Moderna (MRNA +$1.31 after Thursday’s -$0.91, Wednesday’s +$4.84 after Tuesday’s +$0.10 and Monday’s -$0.69),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.23 after Thursday’s +$1.14, Wednesday’s -$0.33 after Tuesday’ +$1.34 and Monday’s -$1.24),
  • Lenz Therapeutics (LENZ +$0.91),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.80 after Thursday’s -$2.77, Wednesday’s +$0.39 after Tuesday’s +$1.63 after Monday’s -$1.78),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.45 after Thursday’s +$0.53),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.12),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.10),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.10),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.07),

Flat (4)

  • Agenus (AGEN)
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)
  • Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX)

Friday’s Closing DOWN (10 of 17):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.61 after Thursday’s -$1.10 after Wednesday’s +$6.30 after Tuesday’s -$0.60 after Monday’s -$3.22)
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.42 after Thursday’s -$1.38 after Wednesday’s +$0.54 after Tuesday’s -$0.38 after Monday’s -$6.82),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.40 after Thursday’s -$0.85 after Wednesday’s -$0.23 after Tuesday’s -$0.16 after Monday’s -$1.66),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.97 after Thursday’s +$0.55 after Wednesday’s +$1.41 after Tuesday’s +$0.33 after Monday’s +$0.51 after earnings release),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.58 after Thursday’s +$0.64 after Wednesday’s +$0.80 after Tuesday’s +$0.35),
  • UniQure NV (QURE -$0.28 after Thursday’s +$0.42 after Wednesday’s +$0.76 after Tuesday’s +$0.43 after Monday’s -$2.25),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.21 after Thursday’s -$1.14),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.11),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.11 after Thursday’s +$0.11 after Wednesday’s -$0.06),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.11 after Thursday’s +$0.20),

 

The BOTTOM LINE: Friday, 3/7 – the 5th NEGATIVE session in the week intermingled by 1 POSITIVE (Wednesday) close in a new month of March … so, what moves stock pricing?

  • Answer … “Uncle algo and his electronic trading dwarfs”
  • Last week in February’s end, all 3 indexes notched losses for February, the Dow and S&P 500 each slipped more than 1% in February, while the Nasdaq recorded its worst month since April 2024 with a drop of -4%.

The Nasdaq lead Friday’s gains by rising 0.7%, following the release of February's jobs data and the whipsaw effect stemming from the Trump administration's shifting tariff policies.

I don’t have much to write/say other than “electronic trading and uncle algo” slipped out the back door reaping sector disharmony and then popped right back for some profiteering.

  • What can I say, love ‘em, leave ‘em and welcome back to save the sector’s honor – “uncle algo and his electronic dwarfs.” <me>
  • Individual investors yanked more than $1 billion from U.S. equities on Tuesday and even more as week continued …
  • A comedown in sentiment among retail investors, who have become a significant part of the U.S. equity market in recent months. 

 

Earnings are here … from Q4/24 and FY24 … my view will follow, has been busy and personally eventful!

  • Agenus (AGEN) – Tuesday, 3/11
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) - Tuesday, 3/11
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO), Monday, 3/17

 

March ‘25: understand the “flow” …

  • 3/7 - Friday closed negative with 14 positive, 17 negative and 4 flats
  • 3/6 – Thursday closed negative with 16 positive, 18 negative and 1 flat
  • 3/5 – Wednesday closed positive with 25 positive, 9 negative and 1 flat
  • 3 /4 – Tuesday closed negative with 15 positive, 18 negative and 2 flats
  • 3/3 – Monday closed negative with 2 positive, 31 negative and 2 flats

 

Big Point to remember “Think about it; the biggest problem the cell and gene therapy sector it’s all to the future …  99% of them have no earnings!

  • If rates are higher for longer, that means that sector companies will continue to struggle or be unable to raise capital and therefore be subject to debt servicing firms!”
  • 2024 saw very little life IPOs (initial public offering) market and secondaries – I have seen private investments, mortgages, sell-offs, as companies deferred and struggle to gain further market access i.e., public. <Me>

What could 2025 have in store for the capital access space?

  • "You'll see a number of cell and gene therapy comandantes drive for secondaries – they’re desperate for cash, but I do think a lot of cell and gene therapy sector companies NEED to be focused on what is driving their own growth —they're focused on a lot of change BUT … that's happening in pipelines … capital expansion is second.

 

Why do I keep repeating, so investors can make the connection …

The top three (3) performing in the session:   

  • Friday: Moderna (MRNA), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
  • Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and uniQure NV (QURE)
  • Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Moderna (MRNA) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
  • Tuesday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Vericel (VCEL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
  • Monday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Harvard Apparatus RT (OTCQB: HRGN)

The worst three (3) in the session: 

  • Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
  • Thursday: Vericel (VCEL), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Mesoblast (MESO)
  • Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Agenus (AGEN)
  • Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Mesoblast (MESO) and AxoGen (AXGN)
  • Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), uniQure NV (QURE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY),

Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and it’s or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.